A Dangerous Showdown in Pakistan

Events in Pakistan seem to be repeating themselves all over again. Reports of over four hundred arrests across Punjab and Sindh of lawyers and political activists before the so-called long march, have reverberated across the country, reminding many of similar developments during former President Pervez Musharraf’s regime. The lawyers long march is part of the continuum of protests by the legal fraternity and opposition political parties that since two years have been demanding a return of the “independent and rightful judiciary” dismissed arbitrarily by Musharraf on November 3, 2007.

The government, in a state of panic, has imposed section 144 across Punjab province and some parts of Sindh to deter participation in the protests. The government seems to have opened a hornet’s nest by taking on its erstwhile coalition partner, the PML-N headed by Nawaz Sharif in Punjab. Sharif has been a staunch supporter of the deposed Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry among other judges. Sharif’s major difference with Zardari stemmed from the latter’s reluctance to reinstate the Chief Justice and abide by the commitments previously made by the president.

Incidentally, the restoration of the “original judiciary” was the pivotal point for the Charter of Democracy that was signed between Sharif and late PPP leader Benazir Bhutto. The late Bhutto had categorically been supporting the Chief Justice’s cause at all platforms on her return to Pakistan in October 2007.

Zardari’s reluctance to reinstate the deposed Chief Justice is being interpreted as an attempt to save himself in case the controversial National Reconciliation Ordinance, introduced by Musharraf, is reversed by an independent judiciary.

Interestingly, Prime Minister Yousuf Reza Gillani has distanced himself from the political machinations of the president, particularly after the treatment meted to the PML-N’s government in Punjab. There is also speculation that the military might back Prime Minister in moves to check the presidency. The chances of a direct military intervention at this point are slim. However, the army might be forced to take sides in the larger national interests.

With an aggressive PML-N poised for the kill and the lawyers’ long march and sit-in at the parliament on March 16, the situation seems to be imploding. More violence and instability are expected as Sharif has already warned of a plot to kill him. It is likely that certain elements might use the opportunity to exacerbate the situation causing excessive damage to the country’s stability. Even the US has called for the government to respect people’s right to protest and cautioned against resorting to undemocratic measures.

It would be prudent for the government to pull itself away from the brink and honour the commitments it had made previously, in the larger national interest. By ceding to the rightful demand of the lawyers, it would not only regain credibility and respect among the people, it would also bridge the differences with other political parties, thus strengthening democracy in the country.