Divide and rule

The British Embassy placed an advertisement in a Harare newspaper this week. It expressed the view that the country's new power-sharing government is unlikely to attract aid as long as Robert Mugabe is part of it. This extraordinary move is perhaps intended to signal to him that his good behaviour will have to be certified every step of the way, if the funds needed to rescue Zimbabwe's collapsed economy are to be handed over by the international community.

For the planned inauguration of Morgan Tsvangirai as prime minister today will mark the start of a struggle in which one side's top card will be access to aid while the other's will be its continued control of the security forces. The Movement for Democratic Change, after years of standing up to Mr Mugabe's brutal bullying and after months of broken promises on power-sharing, can have few illusions. They are in government because Mr Mugabe and his coterie have no other way of getting their hands on the aid that can halt Zimbabwe's freefall into economic and social chaos. Mr Mugabe's people will undoubtedly manoeuvre at every level to control new resources coming in and to claim credit for any economic gains, while maintaining physical control, and exerting whatever degree of intimidation they think they can get away with through the army and the police.

The MDC's counter strategy will be to keep a firm grasp on the aid purse strings, to demonstrate that it is its side which is bringing back jobs and reviving trade and agriculture, and to make it clear to ordinary Zimbabweans that they, unlike Mr Mugabe, enjoy the trust of the outside world. In this way it could satisfy its own supporters and attract the loyalties of many members and followers of Zanu-PF, including some high-level defectors, so that by the time new elections are organised under a new constitution the MDC will be well placed to sweep the board. Both the MDC and Zanu-PF know what the other side is planning and plotting. This is not remotely a unity government, or even a power-sharing government in the true sense of the word. It will be, if it survives, a government in which power is constantly disputed.

The Southern African Development Council, the regional grouping of 15 states, has pushed this deal through. Britain's scepticism is understandable. Mr Mugabe has already succeeded in imposing a security oversight committee which is unlikely to allow the MDC any real voice in military and police matters, and, while the MDC has put one of its smartest men in as finance minister, Mr Mugabe's man remains at the central bank. Conflict awaits round every corner. Yet it still might work, if the players are astute and with some skilful pressure from outside.