The United States, Russia and Iran

Much has been said about US President Barack Obama’s letter to his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev in which he is supposed to have offered to scrap the proposed missile defence system in eastern Europe if Moscow helped in preventing Iran from going nuclear. Terming the reports as “inaccurate,” Obama has maintained that the Iranian missile threat and not a Russian threat is the driving factor behind the missile shield programme.

The missile defence system remains the biggest bone of contention in US-Russian relations. The US move to seek broader cooperation from Russia over Afghanistan is also being perceived as a conciliatory measure after Kyrgyzstan decided to ask the US to close a vital logistical base at Manas, supposedly under Russian pressure. Even though US is looking towards other Central Asian states like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to diversify the supply routes to its forces in Afghanistan other than those in Pakistan, it would require Russian support.

Both the US and Russian leaders have sought to move forward since Obama got elected but there are issues that are difficult to ignore.

Russia’s relations with Iran continue to flourish and are driven by energy and military demands. Moscow remains the main supplier of weaponry, aviation and civil nuclear technology. While both Pentagon and Kremlin reiterate there is no quid pro quo over the missile shield, the US continues to link the missile defence system with the Iranian threat. This is the reason Obama’s letter was perceived as a possible US offer to Moscow.

The US demand that Russia adopt a tougher stance on Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons would probably entail stringent Russian sanctions as well as a perceptible withdrawal in its dealings with Teheran. While the new US government has expressed its desire to engage Iran, it has been unequivocally opposed to its nuclear programme. Though Russian cooperation with US in exerting influence on Iran to abandon its nuclear programme remains a viable option, it is not likely to yield results. Iran’s position to date has been a denial of plans to acquire nuclear weapons. It continues to insist it is pursuing a nuclear programme for peaceful civilian purposes. Meanwhile the respective stands of the US and Russia on the missile shield are unlikely to change, locking the two big powers in another era of no war-no peace confrontation.