A Divided Vote in Israel and US

Israel’s elections have thrown up a divided verdict with no clear winner in sight. Both Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, the prime ministerial hopeful of the governing Kadima Party, and former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Likud have claimed victory.

However, none of them appears to have the magic number that would take them past the post.

Even though Livni’s Kadima Party has a slight edge over Likud in numbers, it’s Netanyahu who is likely to come out top of the heap and form the government with the help of the Yisrael Beytenu party of Avigdor Lieberman.

In fact, if there’s a clear winner of this unclear electoral outcome, it’s Lieberman who has emerged as the kingmaker with his 15 seats in the Knesset, even ahead of Defence Minister Ehud Barak’s Labour party.

Which is bad news for the so-called Middle East peace process. Because both Netanyahu and Lieberman have long been known for their rabid views and posturing on peace with the Palestinians as well as relations with other Arab and Muslim neighbours.

If Netanyahu has repeatedly promised bombing of Iran, Lieberman is known for his calls to abduct and assassinate Hamas leaders and Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Let’s hope, however, better sense will prevail once these hawks are in power. The exigencies and demands of power should hopefully see more reasonable and responsible behaviour by Israel’s new leaders.

The Palestinians and Arabs have no option but prepare themselves to deal with the incoming Israeli leadership. Even though there’s little hope that there will be any real and meaningful progress in the peace process under the incoming regime in Israel, the Palestinians and Arab leaders must continue to press US President Barack Obama to keep his promises on the Middle East. The appointment of George Mitchell as President’s special envoy to the Middle East and the former senator’s impressive credentials as the peacemaker in Northern Ireland have raised huge expectations and hopes in the region and beyond. It remains to be seen how far the new administration will succeed in meeting these expectations though.

No matter who takes over as Israel’s Prime Minister in the next few days and weeks, it is unlikely that the Jewish state’s fundamental policies on occupation of Arab lands and treatment of Palestinian population will change. If anything, under Netanyahu, Israel could undergo further radicalisation — if that is possible.

If there is anyone who could ensure a change in Israel’s policies and its whole approach to the peace process, it is a US President. Unfortunately, no US leader worth his salt has ever tried to confront the mighty State of Israel, persuading it to make peace with the Arabs or give the Palestinians their due.

But if the Middle East peace process has to move forward, ending the half a century of conflict and bloodshed in the world’s most sensitive region, someone has to convince Israel that it cannot continue to occupy the Arab lands making the indigenous people prisoners in their own land. The persecution of the Palestinians has long exercised Arabs and Muslims turning many of them against the United States and the West. In his inaugural address, President Obama promised the Muslim world a ‘new way forward.’ He could start by having a candid chat with the next prime minister of Israel.