Obama and US Exit from Iraq

As US President Barack Obama prepares to announce the withdrawal plans of the US forces in Iraq, he has already delineated his intended line of action to a group of Congressional leaders.

The US leader has apparently decided on the withdrawal of nearly two thirds of the 142,000 US troops from Iraq by August 2010 thus leaving about 50,000 residual troops to support Iraqi security forces as well as protect US interests in the country. Though this falls short of the deadline he promised during his election campaign to bring back all combat forces within 16 months of assuming office, the decision seems to have been made on choosing the most viable option in terms of military interests. The criticism pertaining to the number of non-combat troops that will be required to stay on in Iraq is an issue even some Democrats in Congress such as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid are concerned about.

Under the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) that was signed between Baghdad and Washington last year and ratified by the Iraqi parliament at the end of 2008, all US combat troops were to withdraw from Iraq by end of 2011, if the security situation remained stable. The SOF agreement also allows for further negotiations in withdrawal in case the Iraqi Prime Minister owing to the security situation deems it necessary, to delay the withdrawal. The agreement also called for a referendum to be held in mid-2009 that may require the US forces to completely leave by 2010.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki had demanded a complete US military withdrawal and not just combat brigades to leave Iraq. However, the US leadership not surprisingly does not seem to be in favour of complete withdrawal.

Only recently during Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Shaikh Muhammad Al Sabah’s visit to Baghdad, Maliki had stated that he does not have any apprehensions regarding the withdrawal of US forces as the country’s security forces are capable of defending its security and stability. He attributed the improved security conditions in the country to having contained sectarianism 
and extremism that were seen as the main springs of violence.

According to the Iraq Body Count estimates, the total number of civilian deaths in 2008 declined to around 8,315 - 9,028, from the 25,774 - 27,599 estimates for 2007, indicating a sharp drop in violence. In addition the provincial elections held in Iraq recently this year have also demonstrated that the people have voted in favour of peace and security and against sectarian politics.

Obama’s shift in focus to Afghanistan where he intends to send additional troops also seems to signal that priorities may have changed with the stabilisation of Iraq. But as Iraq gains stability after years of violent conflict, the current situation is still a fragile one and would probably require a longer US military presence in the country, one in keeping with Obama’s decision. What remains to be seen is the reaction Obama’s line of action will elicit from Baghdad.