Nuclear India in a New Age

India has signed a crucial agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear watchdog.

The deal will open the way for international inspections of India’s nuclear programme, in turn allowing it access to nuclear fuel and technology from the Nuclear Supplier Group states. The group had in September 2008 approved an India-specific exemption. This would allow US companies among others to build nuclear reactors in India and provide nuclear fuel for its civilian energy programme.

India’s quest for new energy sources would see a considerable balancing of its energy needs from nuclear energy based sources as they are expected to meet up to 25 per cent of its energy demands by mid century.

More important, defying domestic protests, India’s agreement with the IAEA will entail granting access to its civilian sector in 2009 thus placing 14 declared civilian power reactors (by 2014) from a total of 22 under IAEA safeguards permanently.

This agreement would also place all future civilian thermal and breeder reactors under IAEA safeguards, in keeping with the important stipulation included by New Delhi that the Indian government retains the sole right to determine such reactors as civilian.

This, of course, excludes existing military facilities and stockpiles of nuclear fuel from inspection and allows India greater leverage to extend its nuclear capacity in the civilian and military sector. A lot of concern has been voiced over the lack of sufficient safeguards to prevent India from building more nuclear weapons thus destabilising the already fragile security architecture in the southwest Asia. Apart from Pakistan’s concerns, especially when it feels it’s being left out and is not being offered a similar agreement on developing its civilian nuclear sector, China’s concerns aren’t seen as unjustified. The strategic partnership India has forged with the United States is now viewed as a long-term strategy to contain China. Even though India and China have lately developed a stronger economic relationship, considering their growing regional stature and political and economic ambitions, both are bound to have a conflict of interests in the future.

India’s pledge that any US assistance emanating from this agreement would not be directed at its military programme is not likely to cut any ice. It could, while using the imported nuclear fuel for its civilian capacity, divert its own nuclear fuel to the production of nuclear weapons thus causing an unprecedented proliferation and subsequent reaction by other nuclear states in the region. It is hoped that India shall continue to demonstrate political maturity and responsibility as a nuclear-armed state. Every effort must be made to protect the security and stability of South Asia.